436 Flag Lake Rd

Strayhorn, MS 38665

$176,440D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$925
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,190/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $49,403

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (32.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tate County School District (rural): math 28% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #74 of 130 in MS (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Strayhorn Elementary School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #150 of 375 statewide, top 40%, 406 students, 99% FRL); Strayhorn High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #80 of 197 statewide, top 42%, 309 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 69% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 114 units permitted in Tate County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tate County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.