436 Flag Lake Rd · Strayhorn, MS 38665

$176,440

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot Est $173k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home with an Open Floor Plan on a Beautiful 1 Acre Lot in Sarah, MS ~ Covered Front Entry ~ Great Room ~ Breakfast/Dining Room ~ Kitchen with Eat-At Breakfast Bar ~ Primary Bedroom with Private Bath ~ 2 Additional Bedrooms & a Full Bath ~ Back Patio with Spacious Deck & Pergola ~ Small Storage Shed ~ 18x21 Detached Metal Garage/Storage Building ~ 1,800 sq ft Barn with Horse Stalls ~ Located in a 100% USDA Eligible Financing Area ~ Call for Your Private Showing Today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1 acre (212 x 213); Zoned for single family residential; Horse amenities: barn, boarding facilities, hay storage, stables

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (gravel)
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane available; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; House; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Vinyl construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Few trees; Front yard; Rectangular lot; Barn(s); Pergola; Shed(s); Stable(s); Additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Dead bolt locks; Hinged patio door; Metal insulated door; Security door; Storm door(s); Aluminum window frames; Bay window(s); Blinds; Window screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet on main level; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tate County School District (rural): math 28% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #74 of 130 in MS (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Strayhorn Elementary School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #150 of 375 statewide, top 40%, 406 students, 99% FRL); Strayhorn High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #80 of 197 statewide, top 42%, 309 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 69% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 114 units permitted in Tate County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Tate County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,755
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 Flag Lake Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,070 (+2%)	1mo	$176,440	$165	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $59,892
• Equity at exit: $127,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $178,290
• Equity at exit: $246,374

Cash invested: $49,403 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38665

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$925
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $581/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $158,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-49	+0% $-99	+5% $-149	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-147	+0% $-99	+5% $-52	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-54	base $-99	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,110
• Closing costs: $5,293
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
965 Flag Lake Rd Sarah, MS	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,200	$0.82	3d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $176,440 Active
3. 2021-10-11
   historical
4. 2003-01-02
   listed $91,340
5. 2000-05-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$813/yr (+$68/mo · 140.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,883
• − Property taxes: −$581
• − Insurance: −$882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,133
• Taxable loss: −$4,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tate County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804230
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,975
• Composite: 23.38/100
• National rank: #7903
• State rank: #74 of 130 in MS

Livability — Strayhorn

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strayhorn, MS
• Population (ZIP): 3,817

Population outlook (Tate County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,577 people
• By 2030: 26,872 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 25,319 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 23,590 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 19,500 · -29.3%
• By 2100: 15,468 · -43.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tate

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.6% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+34.5 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.43%
• Current HPI: 246.5952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-10 Listed $176,440 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2003-01-02 Listed $91,340 MLSU
• 2000-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $581 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.