1527 Ashley Rd

Fowlkes, TN 38024

$159,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,761 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $781/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (15.9% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holice Powell Elementary (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #191 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 261 students, 0% FRL); Three Oaks Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #70 of 333 statewide, top 21%, 405 students, 0% FRL); Dyer County High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,070 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.