1527 Ashley Rd · Fowlkes, TN 38024

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,761 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1990 5.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to peaceful rural living just minutes from Dyersburg, yet conveniently located in the county for that true countryside feel. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on expansive 5.7 acres, offering privacy and room to roam behind a gated entry with a paved driveway. The home features a spacious layout with an unfinished basement ready for your custom finishing touches - perfect for additional living space, storage, or a workshop. Enjoy peace of mind with a roof that's only about 2 years old. Highlighting the property is a 64x64 barn, ideal for equipment storage, livestock, hobbies, or even converting into a multipurpose space. This gem is a fantastic starter home brimming with so much p

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Paved driveway
• Expansive acres

Tags

• EXPANSIVE ACRES
• GATED ENTRY
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• 64X64 BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holice Powell Elementary (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #191 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 261 students, 0% FRL); Three Oaks Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #70 of 333 statewide, top 21%, 405 students, 0% FRL); Dyer County High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,070 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,686 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-21,667
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,719
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38024

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,255

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $110	+0% $65	+5% $20	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $12	+0% $65	+5% $118	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $105	base $65	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   status Active
3. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-31
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$466
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dyer County
• NCES district ID: 4701050
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,865
• Composite: 33.19/100
• National rank: #5536
• State rank: #16 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fowlkes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dyer County · 25,952 people
• Metro: Dyersburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 25,952
• Household income: $57,061
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Dyer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,770 people
• By 2030: 35,863 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 33,989 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 32,124 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 25,745 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 19% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dyer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.7pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+37.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.52%
• Current HPI: 162.1695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dyersburg, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — CWTAR
• 2026-01-06 Pending — CWTAR
• 2025-12-31 Listed $159,000 CWTAR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,092 · +49.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.