4202 W Church St

Springfield, MO 65802

$127,750C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$670
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $169/mo
• Annual: $2,031/yr
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $35,770

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 60% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.