4202 W Church St · Springfield, MO 65802

$127,750

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1948 0.37 ac lot $114/sqft · 41% below area Est $217k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

As-is sale -- priced for investors. Vacant and available for immediate access. Property is zoned R-MHC (Residential Manufactured & Small-Format Housing Community), offering unique development flexibility for manufactured and small-format housing options.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Built using standard residential construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Corner, level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 60% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,733 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,856
• List price: $127,750
• Delta: -41.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 N Orchard Crest Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	7mo	$265,000	$241	81
4039 W Dover St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-0%)	10mo	$205,000	$183	67
4221 W Maple St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-13%)	6mo	$80,000	$82	66
316 S Monterey Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	8mo	$189,900	$174	58
4247 W La Siesta Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+9%)	4mo	$215,000	$176	56
4535 W La Casa St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+0%)	11mo	$215,000	$191	56
225 N Meteor Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+11%)	9mo	$175,000	$141	49
4553 W La Siesta St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+10%)	5mo	$177,500	$144	45
4211 W Tarkio St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+11%)	4mo	$209,900	$168	44
4543 W La Casa St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,273 (+14%)	8mo	$179,900	$141	40
218 S York Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	7mo	$175,000	$136	36
4542 W La Siesta St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+13%)	10mo	$225,000	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,758
• Equity at exit: $19,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,343
• Equity at exit: $11,045

Cash invested: $35,770 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$670
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $127,750

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $205	+0% $169	+5% $133	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $122	+0% $169	+5% $216	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $202	base $169	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,938
• Closing costs: $3,832
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 N Mahn Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	24d	1	0.29mi
4149 W Burbank St Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	0.40mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	14d	1	0.85mi
1015 S Meteor Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	14d	1	1.36mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	14d	1	1.36mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,750 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,750 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,750 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,750 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,750 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,750 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,750 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,750 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,750 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,750 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,750 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,750 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,750 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,750 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,750 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $80,000 Active 260-char remark
17. 2017-07-10
    listed $59,900
18. 2015-06-30
    soldstatus $1,151,146
19. 2014-04-02
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 126.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,156
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,716
• Taxable loss: −$89
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+82.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $127,750 SOMO
• 2026-05-14 Listed $80,000 SOMO
• 2017-07-10 Listed $59,900 SOMO
• 2015-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,151,146 Public Records
• 2014-04-02 Listed $69,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.