2846 Indian Trl

Kingsland, TX 78639

$189,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Built 2005 · Land · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,716/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.