2846 Indian Trl · Kingsland, TX 78639

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 2005 9,757 sqft lot $173/sqft · 27% above area Est $148k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home featuring an open floor plan and beautiful Hill Country views — perfect as a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or downsizing opportunity at the lake. This well-maintained home offers vinyl flooring throughout, a spacious kitchen with refinished laminate countertops, a built-in curio cabinet, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of storage. The primary suite includes an adjacent bath with a stand-up shower, built-in bench, and grab bars for added comfort and accessibility. Built with durable smart siding and set on a granite gravel base with blocking, this home also includes a detached 2-car 20x20 carport for convenient covered parkin

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Plenty of storage
• Hill country views

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN CURIO CABINET
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Two total parking spaces; Has carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Construction details: See remarks; Year built source: Public records
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private yard; Exterior steps; Back yard; Cleared lot; Front yard; Few trees; Medium-size trees; Has view; Faces east

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Free-standing electric range; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Main level primary; Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Open floorplan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; No interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,686 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,299
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 27.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-45,020
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-57,679
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $156,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-161	+0% $-226	+5% $-292	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-280	+0% $-226	+5% $-172	+10% $-118
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-178	base $-226	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Aster St Unit 930B Dallas Kingsland, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$995	$1.11	14d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $189,000 Active 830-char remark
19. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus
20. 2024-03-04
    soldstatus
21. 2024-02-22
    soldstatus Closed 990-char remark
22. 2024-01-24
    historical Active Under Contract 990-char remark
23. 2024-01-13
    price $196,800 990-char remark
24. 2023-11-19
    listed $280,000 Active 990-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$6,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #20293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsland, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 8,719
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $189,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $66 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.