29969 Stony Forest Dr

The Woodlands, TX 77354

$404,990D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,506 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,390/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-698/mo
• Annual: $-8,380/yr
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.39%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $113,397

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (41.0% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.