29969 Stony Forest Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$404,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,506 sqft · Land · 109 Days on market

Built 2025 6,442 sqft lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $408k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

Key facts

• New construction
• Full stucco exterior
• 6,442 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• FULL STUCCO EXTERIOR
• BUILT-IN WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• AUTOMATED SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• SMART HOME CAPABILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,021 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.39%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,445
• List price: $404,990
• Delta: -0.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $169,719
• Equity at exit: $364,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $523,190
• Equity at exit: $786,806

Cash invested: $113,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,449/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $281,625

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,248
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $404,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $404,990 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $404,990 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $404,990 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $404,990 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $404,990 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $404,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $404,990 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $404,990 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,990 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,990 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,990 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $404,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

15. 2026-05-15
    price $409,990 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

16. 2026-05-05
    price $409,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

17. 2026-04-17
    status Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

18. 2026-04-17
    price $404,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

19. 2026-04-15
    status Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

20. 2026-04-15
    price $453,740 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

21. 2026-04-13
    historical 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

22. 2026-03-12
    status Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

23. 2026-01-30
    status Pending 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

24. 2026-01-27
    historical 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

25. 2026-01-15
    listed $404,990 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

26. 2026-01-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Woodhavyn! Beautiful 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 car garage. 2 Bedrooms on 1st floor w/3 bedrooms and gameroom on 2nd floor. Bedroom #5 on the 1st floor could be used as a home office/study area. Full Stucco exterior all 4 sides w/composition roof. Large extended outside living patio. The kitchen features BUILT-IN Whirlpool Appliances w/36-inch 5-burner cooktop. Full gutters, wood floors, upper cabinets in the laundry room, double trash can pull-out in the kitchen island. Full exterior gutters. 5 1/4" baseboards, rounded sheetrock corners, ring doorbell, Eero Mesh Device, keyless entry front door lock, fully automated sprinkler system, landscaping, Amazon Video Display, Smart Home Capabilities, and much more! Shea Homes at Woodhavyn - Come LIVE THE DIFFERENCE.

27. 2025-11-24
    price $404,990
28. 2025-11-21
    price $404,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

29. 2025-11-08
    price $424,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

30. 2025-11-04
    price $425,100 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

31. 2025-10-21
    price $424,990
32. 2025-10-18
    price $424,990 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

33. 2025-08-29
    listed $434,990 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Extended outdoor living, Full gutters, 36" gas cooktop, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops

34. 2025-05-22
    price $434,990
35. 2025-05-22
    listed $454,683 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,411 · $618/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,963/yr (+$414/mo · 202.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$2,449
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$15,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $409,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $453,740 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $404,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $404,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $425,100 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $424,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $434,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $434,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $454,683 HARMLS