202 Forgotten Ln

Mabank, TX 75156

$79,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $516/mo
• Annual: $6,195/yr
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.01%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen flooring — Worn hardwood flooring in the kitchen needs replacement.
• Minor: Bathroom flooring — Dated flooring in the bathroom needs updating.
• Minor: Exterior landscaping — Sparse landscaping and overgrown areas need attention.
• Minor: Interior wall paint — Slightly worn paint on interior walls needs touch-up or repainting.
• Minor: Windows — Window frames may need cleaning or minor repairs to enhance curb appeal.