202 Forgotten Ln · Enchanted Oaks, TX 75156

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2000 1.17 ac lot $69/sqft · 29% below area Est $149k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

How would you like to be near the lake on over 1 acre of land? Welcome to your peaceful woodland retreat in the desirable Forgotten Acres Subdivision. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,550 sq ft of well-designed living space, freshly updated with new interior paint. Surrounded by mature trees, this property provides privacy, shade, and a forest-like setting that feels like a true country escape. Inside, the home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, a fireplace, and a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen is a highlight, offering granite countertops, essential appliances, generous cabinet space, and til

Key facts

• 1.17 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as Residential, Single Family Residence; Parcel and assessor references available
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; No garage, no covered or carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; Private sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property (not attached)
• Construction: Built in 2000; Siding construction
• Exterior features: Lot in Forgotten Acres Subdivision; Approximately 1.17 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Two living areas; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.2% in Enchanted Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,103 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.85%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -32.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6170 Cheyenne Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	5mo	$189,900	$121	71
170 Natchez Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	5mo	$60,000	$43	64
177 Natchez Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+1%)	14mo	$124,900	$85	59
109 Indian Harbor Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,274 (-12%)	3mo	$25,995	$20	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $21,813
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $55,419
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $803

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	1.07mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	43d	1	1.07mi
207 Woody Rd Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-03
    listed $100,000 Active 1732-char remark
11. 2026-03-05
    historical
12. 2026-01-07
    listed $119,000 Active
13. 2025-12-24
    price $124,900
14. 2025-12-16
    price $125,000
15. 2025-12-03
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2025-11-25
    soldstatus
17. 2014-12-05
    soldstatus
18. 2014-06-27
    historical
19. 2014-06-03
    listed $59,900 Active
20. 2000-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,009/yr (+$84/mo · 122.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $6,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Enchanted Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1103
• US rank: #19536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2000-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $821 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.