202 Forgotten Ln · Mabank, TX 75156

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2000 Fair condition 1.17 ac lot $54/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks

Escape to your private woodland retreat on over an acre of land, located just minutes from the lake in the desirable Forgotten Acres Subdivision. This freshly updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features 1,550 square feet of well-designed living space surrounded by mature trees for maximum shade and country privacy. Inside, you will find high ceilings, new interior paint, two spacious living areas, and a cozy fireplace ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen shines with granite countertops, warm tile accents, generous cabinet storage, and essential appliances. All bedrooms are light and comfortable, and both bathrooms are well-sized.

Key facts

• Over an acre of land
• Cozy fireplace
• High ceilings

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• MATURE TREES
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• COZY FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.01%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,048
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -59.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6170 Cheyenne Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	8mo	$189,900	$121	68
170 Natchez Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	8mo	$60,000	$43	62
18697 County Road 2529	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-0%)	7mo	$149,000	$103	58
177 Natchez Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+1%)	17mo	$124,900	$85	56
109 Indian Harbor Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,274 (-12%)	6mo	$25,995	$20	46
20213 Leisureland Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-15%)	12mo	$179,000	$145	46
125 Natchez Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	17mo	$85,000	$51	43
107 Pecos Dr	0.92mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	22mo	$85,000	$66	28
116 Running Brook Rd	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-16%)	18mo	$118,999	$98	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $16,252
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $41,702
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $190,000 ($114/sqft)
• Median days on market: 12 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +16.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $539	+0% $516	+5% $494	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $465	+0% $516	+5% $568	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $536	base $516	+0.5pp $496	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Pierce Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,500	$1.25	1d	1	0.43mi
125 Pawnee Trl Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	1d	1	0.52mi
6147 Shawnee Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	5d	1	0.59mi
155 Barcelona St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,750	$1.22	1d	1	0.90mi
120 Janice Ln Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	1d	1	0.94mi
117 Santa Maria St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	1d	1	0.95mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	139d	1	1.07mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	139d	1	1.07mi
120 Excalibur Cir Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$4,999	$3.36	1d	1	1.16mi
207 Woody Rd Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	139d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing handled with exclusive right to sellPossession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City waterPrivate sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelResidential property
• Construction: Siding constructionBuilt in 2000Preowned
• Exterior features: Yard on a 1.166-acre lotSubdivision: Forgotten Acres Sub

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Two living areasOne dining areaOther interior features

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-09-20
   days on market $79,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $79,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-03
    listed $100,000 Active 1732-char remark
14. 2026-03-05
    historical
15. 2026-01-07
    listed $119,000 Active
16. 2025-12-24
    price $124,900
17. 2025-12-16
    price $125,000
18. 2025-12-03
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-11-25
    soldstatus
20. 2014-12-05
    soldstatus
21. 2014-06-27
    historical
22. 2014-06-03
    listed $59,900 Active
23. 2000-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $5,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $4,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,400–$65,520 screening

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value. Key areas for improvement include updating the kitchen and bathroom flooring, enhancing the landscaping, and touch-up or repainting interior walls.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring carpet

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen flooring — Worn hardwood flooring in the kitchen needs replacement.
• Minor Bathroom flooring — Dated flooring in the bathroom needs updating.
• Minor Exterior landscaping — Sparse landscaping and overgrown areas need attention.
• Minor Interior wall paint — Slightly worn paint on interior walls needs touch-up or repainting.
• Minor Windows — Window frames may need cleaning or minor repairs to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace worn kitchen flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Update bathroom flooring — Fresh flooring will enhance the bathroom's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Improve landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior will attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Touch-up or repaint interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Mabank J H C TX #333/1,662 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Mabank H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 80,471 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing handled with exclusive right to sellPossession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City waterPrivate sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelResidential property
• Construction: Siding constructionBuilt in 2000Preowned
• Exterior features: Yard on a 1.166-acre lotSubdivision: Forgotten Acres Sub

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Two living areasOne dining areaOther interior features

Price history

+31.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-18 Listed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2026-07-23 Rental Removed $1,200 NTREIS
• 2026-06-20 Listed for Rent $1,200 NTREIS
• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2000-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $821 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.