5520 Canvasback Rd

Blaine, WA 98230

$995,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,531 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$987
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-3,917/mo
• Annual: $-47,008/yr
• Cap rate: 1.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.87%
• DSCR: 0.25
• 1% rule: 0.31%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-47k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (69.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (69.1% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($935k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (69.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $674k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$171k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 2.1% in Blaine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.