5520 Canvasback Rd · Blaine, WA 98230

$995,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1991 0.41 ac lot $282/sqft · 19% below area Est $1225k · 19% under $140/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy beautiful natural light and golf course views in this home perfectly positioned along the 17th fairway of the Semiahmoo Golf & Country Club. With favorable southern exposure, the living spaces feel bright and welcoming throughout the day, a wonderful feature in this peaceful, tree-lined community. The thoughtful floor plan features a main level primary suite with soaring vaulted ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, new carpet, and brand new stainless steel appliances, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel throughout. Multiple living areas offer flexibility for everyday living, entertaining, or creating a comfortabl

Key facts

• Southern exposure
• Spacious patio
• Golf course views

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• SOUTHERN EXPOSURE
• MAIN LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• QUIET SEMIAHMOO LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO VANCOUVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-47k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (69.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (69.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (69.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 2.1% in Blaine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$171k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($935k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $674k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $302,992 (69.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.87%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 27.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,224,571
• List price: $995,000
• Delta: -18.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5506 Canvasback Rd	0.04mi	3/3.5	3,560 (+1%)	1mo	$1,329,000	$373	94
5543 Night Heron Dr	0.12mi	3/5.0	3,584 (+2%)	2mo	$1,359,000	$379	82
8870 Cormorant Ct	0.08mi	3/3.5	3,697 (+5%)	11mo	$1,425,000	$385	77
8777 Goshawk Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,494 (-1%)	0mo	$985,000	$282	77
5442 Goldfinch Way	0.22mi	3/3.5	3,260 (-8%)	1mo	$2,150,000	$660	74
5566 Sandpiper Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,400 (-4%)	1mo	$1,030,000	$303	70
8986 Merganser Ct	0.19mi	3/3.5	3,761 (+6%)	17mo	$1,445,000	$384	64
9104 Pintail Loop	0.63mi	3/3.0	3,448 (-2%)	12mo	$1,200,000	$348	57
5555 Sandpiper Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,059 (-13%)	6mo	$1,025,000	$335	48
8849 Goldeneye Ln	0.30mi	3/3.5	4,055 (+15%)	14mo	$1,098,500	$271	48
5578 Sandpiper Ln	0.36mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,850 (+9%)	18mo	$1,251,000	$325	46
5370 Golden Eagle Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	3,076 (-13%)	18mo	$1,100,000	$358	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $292,438
• Equity at exit: $896,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $1,057,455
• Equity at exit: $1,933,066

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 27.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$572 /mo · $6,867/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-3,917

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,031

Max offer price $302,992

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,354	-5% $-3,636	+0% $-3,917	+5% $-4,199	+10% $-4,481
Rent	-10% $-4,160	-5% $-4,039	+0% $-3,917	+5% $-3,796	+10% $-3,675
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,416	-0.5pp $-3,664	base $-3,917	+0.5pp $-4,175	+1.0pp $-4,437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $995,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $995,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $995,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $995,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $995,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $995,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $995,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $995,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $995,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $995,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $995,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $995,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $995,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $995,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $995,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $995,000
17. 2026-04-14
    status Active
18. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-13
    listed $1,025,000 Active
20. 2022-06-14
    soldstatus $674,150 Closed
21. 2022-05-21
    status Pending
22. 2020-12-01
    status Active
23. 2020-11-30
    status Pending
24. 2020-11-30
    price $699,000
25. 2020-10-14
    listed $739,000 Active
26. 2003-08-26
    soldstatus $401,911
27. 1990-01-24
    soldstatus $111,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,867 · $572/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,751 · $813/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,884/yr (+$240/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥79°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$6,867
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,950
• − Management: −$2,950
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable loss: −$67,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,135
• After-tax cash flow: $-30,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+796.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $995,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $1,025,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Sold (MLS) $674,150 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-01 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-30 Price Changed $699,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-14 Listed $739,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $401,911 Public Records
• 1990-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,867 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.