276 Arbor Lakes Dr

Loughman, FL 33896

$269,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Built 2017 · Townhouse · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$159
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,336/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 775 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $209k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.