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276 Arbor Lakes Dr
D+ Composite 46.08
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.4/30.0
  • Appreciation +4.1/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.5/10.0
  • Schools +3.5/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • DSCR +2.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0

$269,900

276 Arbor Lakes Dr · Loughman, FL 33896
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market
Built 2017 2,648 sqft lot Est $345k · 22% under $159/mo HOA · 7% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

Key facts

  • Gated community
  • Move in ready
  • $159 HOA

Tags

GATED COMMUNITYRESORT STYLE COMMUNITY POOLMOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

  • Financial info: Total monthly association fees noted as $159; Total annual association fees noted as $1,908; Lease restrictions apply
  • HOA & community: Monthly HOA: $159 (includes pool, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenance); HOA required; Clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Playground; Sidewalks; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

  • Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
  • Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Irrigation (reclaimed water noted in community features)
  • Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two stories; Faces east; Entry level on slab foundation
  • Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 276
  • Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Playground; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation system

Interior

  • Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
  • Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
  • Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
  • Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
  • Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
  • Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floor plan
  • Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (12.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $230k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 775 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
  • Current owner paid $209k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $230,437 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.85%
Cap rate
5.43%
Cash-on-cash
-3.09%
DSCR
0.86
GRM
9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (on-the-fly)
$344,800
Comps found
3
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
7468 Excitement Dr #101 0.69mi 3/2.0 1,472 (-15%) 2mo $250,000 $170 42
7414 Excitement Dr #101 0.65mi 3/2.0 1,548 (-10%) 19mo $310,000 $200 37
7462 Excitement Dr #103 0.69mi 3/2.0 1,548 (-10%) 24mo $330,000 $213 31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-16.9%
Equity multiple
0.35×
Total profit
$-49,325
Equity at exit
$54,538
10-year hold
IRR
-14.3%
Equity multiple
0.04×
Total profit
$-72,413
Equity at exit
$48,645

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

ZIP-level market 33896

Home prices YoY
-0.8%
Rents YoY
-0.2%
Active inventory
775
Price-to-rent
9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,304 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,415
Tax from tax record
$328 /mo · $3,940/yr
Insurance
$112
HOA
$159
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$484
Net cashflow
$-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551
Max offer price $235,505
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-42 -5% $-118 +0% $-195 +5% $-271 +10% $-347
Rent -10% $-377 -5% $-286 +0% $-195 +5% $-104 +10% $-13
Rate -1.0pp $-59 -0.5pp $-126 base $-195 +0.5pp $-265 +1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$67,475
Closing costs
$8,097
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
241 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1507 $1,800 $1.19 24d 1 0.02mi
244 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1507 $1,850 $1.23 24d 1 0.03mi
136 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL 4.0 3.0 1823 $3,100 $1.70 24d 1 0.05mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1674 $1,890 $1.13 24d 1 0.09mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1724 $1,890 $1.10 15d 1 0.09mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 3.0 1724 $1,890 $1.10 15d 1 0.09mi
415 Villa Domani Way Davenport, FL 4.0 3.0 2205 $3,995 $1.81 11d 1 0.12mi
216 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL 4.0 3.0 1871 $3,000 $1.60 24d 1 0.15mi
181 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL 4.0 3.0 1823 $2,600 $1.43 24d 1 0.15mi
419 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1724 $1,900 $1.10 24d 1 0.18mi
614 Terrace Ridge Cir Unit 1 Davenport, FL 2.0 2.0 1261 $2,000 $1.59 24d 1 0.19mi
447 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1507 $1,850 $1.23 22d 1 0.20mi
467 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1507 $1,825 $1.21 24d 1 0.21mi
471 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1724 $1,980 $1.15 12d 1 0.21mi
2110 Lynwind Blvd Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1057 $2,504 $2.37 4d 41 0.22mi
817 Terrace Ridge Cir #817 Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1542 $1,795 $1.16 22d 1 0.23mi
818 Terrace Ridge Cir #818 Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1542 $2,300 $1.49 15d 1 0.23mi
1000 Victoria Park Blvd Davenport, FL 1.0–4.0 1.0–3.0 1212 $1,932 $1.59 3d 10 0.25mi
396 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 4.0 1671 $3,000 $1.80 24d 1 0.30mi
200 Village Blvd Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1040 $1,887 $1.81 3d 28 0.32mi
509 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 4.0 1671 $2,800 $1.68 24d 1 0.35mi
513 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 4.0 1671 $2,800 $1.68 15d 1 0.35mi
6100 Echelon Way Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1117 $2,330 $2.09 3d 23 0.38mi
637 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 4.0 1856 $2,800 $1.51 24d 1 0.46mi
436 Lake Shore Pkwy Davenport, FL 4.0 3.0 1628 $2,700 $1.66 24d 1 0.46mi
609 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 4.0 1736 $2,700 $1.56 24d 1 0.48mi
620 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL 3.0 2.5 1493 $2,650 $1.77 3d 1 0.50mi
2148 Prado Dr Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 945 $1,820 $1.92 4d 1 0.52mi
1305 Farkleberry LN Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1060 $2,385 $2.25 4d 172 0.55mi
1008 Laguna Loop Davenport, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1002 $2,016 $2.01 4d 23 0.62mi
7673 Heritage Crossing Way Unit 1252673P Kissimmee, FL 3.0 2.0 1334 $2,117 $1.59 4d 1 0.64mi
7505 Mourning Dove Cir Reunion, FL 3.0 2.0 1419 $2,175 $1.53 18d 2 0.66mi
7505 Mourning Dove Cir #204 Reunion, FL 3.0 2.0 1419 $2,200 $1.55 8d 1 0.66mi
7501 Mourning Dove Cir #103 Reunion, FL 3.0 2.0 1354 $2,150 $1.59 24d 1 0.66mi
1501 Northern Harrier Way Unit 1019795P Kissimmee, FL 3.0 2.0 1410 $2,512 $1.78 8d 1 0.66mi
1598 Heritage Crossing Ct #201 Reunion, FL 3.0 2.0 1344 $2,200 $1.64 24d 1 0.68mi
1591 Heritage Crossing Ct #201 Reunion, FL 3.0 2.0 1100 $1,900 $1.73 15d 1 0.69mi
7628 Heritage Crossing Way Unit 1295173P Kissimmee, FL 3.0 2.0 1334 $2,200 $1.65 4d 1 0.73mi
7635 Heritage Crossing Way Unit 1241334P Kissimmee, FL 3.0 2.0 1334 $3,700 $2.77 3d 1 0.74mi
112 Azalea Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 2.0 1971 $2,800 $1.42 24d 1 0.83mi

HOA detail

Monthly dues
$159 · $1,908/yr
Likely covers
poolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

  1. 2026-05-23
    status Pending
  2. 2026-04-22
    listed $269,900 Active
  3. 2023-08-10
    historical $1,900
  4. 2023-08-09
    listed $1,900
  5. 2019-04-05
    soldstatus $209,000 Sold 741-char remark
    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

  6. 2019-03-06
    status Pending 741-char remark
    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

  7. 2019-02-19
    price $219,900 741-char remark
    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

  8. 2019-02-19
    price $224,900 741-char remark
    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

  9. 2019-02-18
    listed $220,000 Active 741-char remark
    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Location, Location, location. Beautiful townhouse was builtt in 2017. This beautiful new fully furnished townhome community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from shopping, restaurants and Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Spacious kitchen/ dining area. Large open living room to half bathroom. Upstairs is complete with 3 bathrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The block construction upstairs, downstairs and in between the homes, will help keep your home cool, keep energy costs low. Close to tourist spots and shopping options. Ideal as a starter family home or a vacation rental investment with low HOA's fees and really close to all the fun activities and the them parks.

  10. 2017-12-04
    soldstatus $198,998 Sold 680-char remark
    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Welcome to Lake Bluff at Town Center East!! A DR Horton Express Town Homes community located on the corner of Ronald Reagan Parkway and Old Lake Wilson Road. This New Town Home community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Our Town Homes come with all appliances including window treatments(Blinds)(Verticals) and are move in ready. * * Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries.

  11. 2017-11-27
    status Pending 680-char remark
    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Welcome to Lake Bluff at Town Center East!! A DR Horton Express Town Homes community located on the corner of Ronald Reagan Parkway and Old Lake Wilson Road. This New Town Home community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Our Town Homes come with all appliances including window treatments(Blinds)(Verticals) and are move in ready. * * Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries.

  12. 2017-10-19
    price $198,998 680-char remark
    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Welcome to Lake Bluff at Town Center East!! A DR Horton Express Town Homes community located on the corner of Ronald Reagan Parkway and Old Lake Wilson Road. This New Town Home community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Our Town Homes come with all appliances including window treatments(Blinds)(Verticals) and are move in ready. * * Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries.

  13. 2017-09-13
    listed $199,994 Active 680-char remark
    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Welcome to Lake Bluff at Town Center East!! A DR Horton Express Town Homes community located on the corner of Ronald Reagan Parkway and Old Lake Wilson Road. This New Town Home community is centrally located in the city of Davenport, just minutes from Disney. Lake Bluff is a gated community that offers a resort style community pool. Our Town Homes come with all appliances including window treatments(Blinds)(Verticals) and are move in ready. * * Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$3,940 · $328/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$3,940 · $328/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$27,652
− Mortgage interest
−$15,119
− Property taxes
−$3,940
− Insurance
−$1,350
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,212
− Management
−$2,212
− HOA
−$1,908
− Depreciation
−$7,852
Taxable loss
−$6,939
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,665
After-tax cash flow
$-671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Polk
NCES district ID
1201590
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$43,979
Composite
34.74/100
National rank
#5132
State rank
#62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

Score
61/100
State rank
#781
US rank
#17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Loughman, FL
County
Polk County · 740,051 people
City population
23,652
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Population (ZIP)
26,731
Household income
$74,668
Rent vs Own
54.9% rent · 45.1% own
Severe rent burden
1490.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
752,975 people
By 2030
804,621 · +6.9%
By 2040
906,117 · +20.3%
By 2050
1,000,476 · +32.9%
By 2075
1,197,520 · +59.0%
By 2100
1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity
White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
2008→2024 swing
-14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -1.83%
Current HPI
219.4726
Rent YoY
▼ -0.19%
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
State GDP YoY
▲ 3.28%
F500 in state
36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

+35.0% since first listed
13 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-23 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-22 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-08-10 Rental Removed $1,900 STELLARMLS
  • 2023-08-09 Listed for Rent $1,900 STELLARMLS
  • 2019-04-05 Sold (MLS) $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2019-03-06 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2019-02-19 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2019-02-19 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2019-02-18 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2017-12-04 Sold (MLS) $198,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2017-11-27 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2017-10-19 Price Changed $198,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2017-09-13 Listed $199,994 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+48.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,940 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

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