534 Forest Park Rd

Middletown, RI 02842

$50,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$975
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $484/mo
• Annual: $5,804/yr
• Cap rate: 17.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.45%
• DSCR: 2.84
• 1% rule: 4.55%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middletown (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #20 of 39 in RI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Newport County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.