534 Forest Park Rd · Middletown, RI 02842

$50,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1987 $975/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An opportunity to own an affordable one-bedroom, one-bath manufactured home in Middletown. This is a comfortable alternative to renting or a perfect place for convenient weekend retreats on Aquidneck Island. Located in the Forest Park community, the home includes off-street parking and low-maintenance living. Easy access to Newport and some of Rhode Island's best beaches just a few miles away. No age restrictions. Lot rent includes water, sewer, road maintenance, and trash removal. Property is being sold "as-is. "

Key facts

• Off-street parking
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1987

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO NEWPORT
• FOREST PARK COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessed value listed
• HOA & community: Association fee $975 monthly; Property has a land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric (100 amps); Water service via tap; Propane for heating
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Water tap fee (water service available)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 3 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric service 100 amps

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middletown (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #20 of 39 in RI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Newport County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.45%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $29,419
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $94,188
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02842

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$975
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
969 W Main Rd Middletown, RI	2.0	1.0	680	$2,070	$3.04	1d	5	0.63mi
6 Woolsey Rd Unit A Middletown, RI	2.0	1.0	747	$2,250	$3.01	19d	1	0.64mi
267 Green End Ave Middletown, RI	2.0	1.0	629	$2,500	$3.97	23d	1	1.06mi
38 Hilltop Ave Unit COTTAGE Middletown, RI	1.0	1.0	650	$2,000	$3.08	23d	1	1.14mi
11 Village Ln Unit B Middletown, RI	2.0	1.0	550	$2,150	$3.91	16d	1	1.21mi
184 N Fenner Ave Unit 9C Middletown, RI	2.0	1.0	550	$2,150	$3.91	23d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $975 · $11,700/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$11,700
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown
• NCES district ID: 4400630
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,845
• Composite: 28.59/100
• National rank: #6717
• State rank: #20 of 39 in RI

Livability — Middletown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport East, RI
• County: Newport County · 73,957 people
• City population: 16,832
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 16,832
• Household income: $101,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 739.0

Population outlook (Newport County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,198 people
• By 2030: 79,518 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 75,581 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 71,801 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 64,618 · -20.4%
• By 2100: 56,724 · -30.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 11% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.6% · R 36.1% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+29.8 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+17.7 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.89%
• Current HPI: 374.2301
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $50,000 RIS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $689 · -33.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.