418 Cider Mill Dr

Thornapple, MI 49333

$20,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,371/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $945/mo
• Annual: $11,336/yr
• Cap rate: 62.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 202.43%
• DSCR: 10.01
• 1% rule: 6.85%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Thornapple Kellogg School District (rural): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 171 units permitted in Barry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barry County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.