418 Cider Mill Dr · Thornapple, MI 49333

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for affordable homeownership instead of renting? This 1991 mobile home in Cider Mill Village offers great space, included appliances, and several hard-to-find extras at an affordable price. Home Features -2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom -Large master bedroom with ceiling fan & amp; double closets -Spacious bathroom with: -Corner garden soaking tub -Separate walk-in shower -Double vanity sinks -Bright eat-in kitchen with oak cabinets, dishwasher & amp; double sink -Separate dining area with bay windows & amp; ceiling fan -In-home laundry closet -Washer & amp; dryer included -Plenty of hallway storage throughout Included With Sale: -Refrigerator -Gas stove/range -Washer &

Key facts

• Oak cabinets
• Included appliances
• Double vanity sinks

Tags

• INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• CORNER GARDEN SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY SINKS
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Thornapple Kellogg School District (rural): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 171 units permitted in Barry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barry County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 202.43%
• DSCR: 10.01
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.17×
• Total profit: $56,945
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.70×
• Total profit: $127,144
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49333

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Lincoln St Middleville, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$1,312	$1.38	2d	1	0.22mi
822 Midvilla Ln Middleville, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,595	$1.90	2d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $20,000 Active 1468-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $11,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,812
• After-tax cash flow: $8,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornapple Kellogg School District
• NCES district ID: 2633810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $63,480
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3755
• State rank: #127 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thornapple

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleville, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,448

Population outlook (Barry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,601 people
• By 2030: 59,185 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 57,121 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 53,139 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 42,814 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 29,357 · -50.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 18% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.3) · D 32.1% · R 66.4% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -34.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.3 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+18.1 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.38%
• Current HPI: 233.9089
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $20,000 FSBO.com