6179 Falkenbury Rd

Barnes Lake, MI 48461

$146,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $298/mo
• Annual: $3,574/yr
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $40,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Branch Area Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #163 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.