6179 Falkenbury Rd · Barnes Lake, MI 48461

$146,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1960 3.03 ac lot $103/sqft · 19% below area Est $181k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

Key facts

• 3.03 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Branch Area Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #163 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $128,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,072
• List price: $146,000
• Delta: -19.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6077 Falkenbury Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,436 (+1%)	18mo	$199,900	$139	68
124 Bindon Dr	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-14%)	16mo	$53,000	$43	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,691
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,332
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48461

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,676/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $339	+0% $298	+5% $257	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $235	+0% $298	+5% $361	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $335	base $298	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1725 Burnside Rd North Branch, MI	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,600	$1.38	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $146,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $146,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $146,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    price $146,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

13. 2026-05-19
    price $146,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

14. 2026-05-19
    price $146,000

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

15. 2026-04-03
    price $152,900 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $152,900 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $152,900

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

18. 2026-02-24
    price $157,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

19. 2026-02-24
    price $157,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

20. 2026-02-24
    price $157,000

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

21. 2026-01-09
    price $159,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

22. 2026-01-09
    status Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

23. 2026-01-09
    price $159,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

24. 2026-01-08
    status Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

25. 2026-01-08
    price $159,000

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

26. 2026-01-08
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

27. 2025-12-19
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

28. 2025-12-19
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

29. 2025-12-19
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

30. 2025-12-16
    listed $169,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

31. 2025-12-16
    listed $169,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

32. 2025-12-16
    listed $169,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Affordable entry into homeownership or investing! This property presents a solid opportunity for a buyer ready to add value. The home requires repairs and a thorough cleaning, offering a blank slate for updates and personalization. With the right improvements, this property has strong potential to become a comfortable residence or a worthwhile investment. Bring your ideas and unlock this home's potential. Cash buyers only.

33. 2019-09-03
    soldstatus $120,000
34. 2019-08-23
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
35. 2019-08-23
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
36. 2019-07-19
    status Pending
37. 2019-07-16
    historical
38. 2019-07-08
    listed $129,900
39. 2019-07-08
    historical
40. 2019-07-08
    historical
41. 2019-07-08
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,676 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,962 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$1,676
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $1,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Branch Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625680
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,914
• Composite: 37.22/100
• National rank: #4465
• State rank: #163 of 540 in MI

Livability — Barnes Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,256

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.79%
• Current HPI: 230.1752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+12.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $146,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $146,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $146,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $152,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $152,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $152,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $157,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $157,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $157,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $159,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $159,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $159,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-12-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-19 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $169,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $169,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-16 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-23 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-23 Sold (MLS) $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-07-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-07-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-07-08 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-07-08 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,676 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.