6154 Mission #33

Jurupa Valley, CA 92509

$78,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $425/mo
• Annual: $5,099/yr
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.35%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,170 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jurupa Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #953 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rustic Lane Elementary (541 students, 86% FRL); Mission Middle (694 students, 89% FRL); Rubidoux High (1,407 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 64% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.1% in Jurupa Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.