Lancia's Avalon II Plan

Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$237,800F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 398 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,061
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-1,107/mo
• Annual: $-13,286/yr
• Cap rate: 2.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.07%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $110,049

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak View Elementary School (math 66% / reading 55%, grade B-, #122 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 453 students, 14% FRL); Maple Creek Middle School (math 41% / reading 60%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 957 students, 14% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.7% in Fort Wayne — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.