Lancia's Avalon II Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$237,800

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Excellent condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Avalon II is a spacious 2-story floor plan. The Laundry Room or extra Pantry off the Garage features Locker Cubbies, making storage easy. Great Room is completely open to the Nook and Kitchen. 3 Bedrooms upstairs + Loft for bonus space. Office or Bonus Room at the front of the house has a tray ceiling. A full basement is available. * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• Locker cubbies
• Laundry room
• Kitchen

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOCKER CUBBIES
• GREAT ROOM
• NOOK
• KITCHEN
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $237,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $388,136.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.8% in Fort Wayne — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,264 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.79%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,136
• List price: $237,800
• Delta: -38.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
495 Merriweather Psge	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,938 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$181	79
486 Merriweather Psge	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (+2%)	9mo	$352,275	$185	76
11967 Falcatta Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (+2%)	1mo	$359,900	$189	71
911 Glen Eagle Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,657 (-11%)	7mo	$300,000	$181	67
12129 Willow Cv	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-14%)	7mo	$302,000	$189	62
813 Seamist Pt	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+9%)	6mo	$290,000	$144	62
11688 Talis Park Way	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,063 (+11%)	7mo	$435,000	$211	59
1106 Brandon Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,867 (+1%)	9mo	$405,000	$217	55
11233 Shalimar Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,120 (+14%)	2mo	$325,000	$153	54
394 Carrara Cv	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,118 (+14%)	5mo	$370,000	$175	50
11935 Falcatta Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,125 (+15%)	3mo	$384,900	$181	50
244 Sepia Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,065 (+11%)	0mo	$415,900	$201	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-119,711
• Equity at exit: $57,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-140,888
• Equity at exit: $33,559

Cash invested: $108,678 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,822/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,459

Max offer price $233,614

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,034
• Closing costs: $11,644
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10617 Wood Flower Ct Fort Wayne, IN	2.0	1.0	1240	$1,695	$1.37	44d	1	1.32mi
401 Augusta Way Fort Wayne, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1198	$1,765	$1.47	14d	14	1.35mi
562 Highfields Cv Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2413	$2,700	$1.12	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,800 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,800 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,800 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,800 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $237,800 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,800 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,800 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,800 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,800 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,800 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,800 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $237,800 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,000 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,000 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $233,000 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    price $233,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Avalon II is a spacious 2-story floor plan. The Laundry Room or extra Pantry off the Garage features Locker Cubbies, making storage easy. Great Room is completely open to the Nook and Kitchen. 3 Bedrooms upstairs + Loft for bonus space. Office or Bonus Room at the front of the house has a tray ceiling. A full basement is available. * Base price does not include land

17. 2025-08-22
    listed $231,200 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Avalon II is a spacious 2-story floor plan. The Laundry Room or extra Pantry off the Garage features Locker Cubbies, making storage easy. Great Room is completely open to the Nook and Kitchen. 3 Bedrooms upstairs + Loft for bonus space. Office or Bonus Room at the front of the house has a tray ceiling. A full basement is available. * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,742
• − Property taxes: −$5,822
• − Insurance: −$1,941
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,291
• Taxable loss: −$20,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Avalon II plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Upgrading the flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader range of buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Upgrading the flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader range of buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 467.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $233,000 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $231,200 Zillow