552 Mountain Ave

Cairo, NY 12413

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-766/mo
• Annual: $-9,189/yr
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.93%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (49.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (42.8% below list).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $187k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.