552 Mountain Ave · Cairo, NY 12413

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 236 Days on market

Built 1945 0.51 ac lot $166/sqft · 26% below area Est $371k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this comfortable 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in the quiet area of Cairo, NY. The property offers a peaceful setting. The home has a nice yard, private driveway and plenty of room for everyday living. Enjoy easy access to nearby towns, as well as outdoor activities in the Catskill mountains.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Peaceful setting
• Nice yard

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• NICE YARD
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY TOWNS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (49.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (42.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $187k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,732 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.93%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,903
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -25.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
549 Mountain Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (+5%)	21mo	$610,000	$350	68
20 Olivers Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$429,000	$252	60
275 Mountain Ave	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,788 (+8%)	7mo	$465,000	$260	48
251 Vernal Butler Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+12%)	18mo	$300,000	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $101,093
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $336,231
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12413

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,411/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $139,732

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 217 DOM
16. 2025-10-24
    listed $275,000 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to this comfortable 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in the quiet area of Cairo, NY. The property offers a peaceful setting. The home has a nice yard, private driveway and plenty of room for everyday living. Enjoy easy access to nearby towns, as well as outdoor activities in the Catskill mountains.

17. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus $187,460

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,411 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,411 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,411
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$14,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 3,406

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.58%
• Current HPI: 406.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-24 Listed $275,000 Global MLS
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $187,460 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,411 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.