3909 Burtch Rd

Lakeport, MI 48059

$92,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $300/mo
• Annual: $3,600/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Port Huron Area School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #368 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keewahdin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #814 of 1,397 statewide, top 61%, 487 students, 56% FRL); Fort Gratiot Middle School (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #235 of 493 statewide, top 49%, 584 students, 39% FRL); Port Huron Northern High School (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #99 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 1,169 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Port Huron Area School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.