3909 Burtch Rd · Lakeport, MI 48059

$92,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1950 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION ! 1300 sqft home 3 bedroom 1 bath oversized garage with loft above. Nice size living room with wood floors, 2 bedrooms on main floor, upstairs is a large area sectioned off but would make a large bedroom with doors leading to second story deck. Laundry plumbing is located in the bathroom. In need of some TLC but lots of potential here. With some imagination and some elbow grease this can be great place. Nice lot size, natural gas, paved road, and city water. Subject to probate court approval.

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation; Built area above grade 1,304 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.58 acres; Irregular lot dimensions (70 x 430 x 50 x 260 x 20 x 175)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Space heater; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Port Huron Area School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #368 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keewahdin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #814 of 1,397 statewide, top 61%, 487 students, 56% FRL); Fort Gratiot Middle School (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #235 of 493 statewide, top 49%, 584 students, 39% FRL); Port Huron Northern High School (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #99 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 1,169 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Port Huron Area School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $4,211
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $28,321
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48059

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $794

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $326	+0% $300	+5% $274	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $254	+0% $300	+5% $346	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $323	base $300	+0.5pp $276	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $92,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 518-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $92,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $2,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Huron Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2628830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,093
• Composite: 25.4/100
• National rank: #7462
• State rank: #368 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lakeport

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeport, MI
• Population (ZIP): 15,371

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.89%
• Current HPI: 151.0184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $92,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $92,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.