517 E 2nd South St

Carlinville, IL 62626

$112,500D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 577 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $685/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $31,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 577 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 577 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.