517 E 2nd South St · Carlinville, IL 62626

$112,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Townhouse · 575 Days on market

0.46 ac lot $76/sqft · 21% above area Est $93k · 21% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Listed 574 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 575 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $99,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 575 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,079
• List price: $112,500
• Delta: 20.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-14,573
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-7,918
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62626

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,817/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 N East St Unit A Carlinville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.41mi
213 N East St Unit B Carlinville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.41mi
524 N Chiles St Carlinville, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	0.90mi
928 Sumner St Carlinville, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	23d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,500 Active 575 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,500 Active 574 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,500 Active 573 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,500 Active 572 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,500 Active 570 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $112,500 Active 569 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,500 Active 566 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,500 Active 565 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,500 Active 564 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $112,500 Active 563 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $112,500 Active 560 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,500 Active 559 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,500 Active 558 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,500 Active 557 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,500 Active 556 DOM
17. 2025-11-17
    price $112,500 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

18. 2025-07-29
    status Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

19. 2025-07-14
    historical Under Contract 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

20. 2025-05-27
    price $115,000 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

21. 2024-11-20
    listed $125,000 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Charming home with original woodwork, pocket doors between LR and DR, solid original doors on rooms and corner built-in in the DR. Original door ringer at front door! The lot is 400 feet deep and is so peaceful just standing and looking at it from the back deck. UGRADES include all new vinyl windows, some of the roof, some of the foundation, water line, water heater, window air conditioner on each floor, new wiring and electric box, sump pump, new kitchen. Outside of house has been all repainted - Basement floor has been all rubberized. Appliances include refrigerator, stove top, double ovens, stack washer/dryer. John Deere Riding Mower in the outside shed stays.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,817 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,185 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$1,817
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,027
• − Management: −$1,027
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlinville CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,617
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5854
• State rank: #168 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlinville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlinville, IL
• City population: 7,911
• Population (ZIP): 7,911

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.39%
• Current HPI: 180.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $112,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $115,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Listed $125,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,817 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.