1221 Fairfax Ave

Deale, MD 20733

$460,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,837/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (31.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $315k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#166 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $460k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Deale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.