1221 Fairfax Ave · Deale, MD 20733

$460,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1991 0.29 ac lot Est $423k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Professional Photos coming soon! One of the larger lots in the neighborhood. Wait until you see the backyard oasis! Recent updates include the roof, windows, doors, & water heater. Primary suite with a vaulted ceiling. Garage is insulated and has a split unit for additional comfort. Shows well & turn key ready! This one is worth the wait!

Key facts

• Insulated garage
• Recent updates
• Split unit

Tags

• BACKYARD OASIS
• RECENT UPDATES
• INSULATED GARAGE
• SPLIT UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property listed in excellent condition; Above-grade finished area reported by assessor

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage with inside access (1 garage space); Paved driveway with about 3 driveway spaces; Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water; Electric utilities
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Situated outside city limits
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Private beach access; Rear yard with fencing; Property backs to trees; Landscaped, premium lot; Water access to a bay (canoe/kayak, fishing, powered boats, PWC, swimming) with private access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with table space; Upgraded countertops
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning with ceiling fans; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan with dining area; Family room off the kitchen; Eat-in kitchen with table space; Master bathroom; Upgraded countertops; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Deale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#166 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $460k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,066 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $423,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5515 Calvert St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-0%)	6mo	$419,000	$313	87
1203 Gwynne Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$394,000	$274	73
5511 Dartmouth St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	18mo	$405,000	$289	70
1215 Garret Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+15%)	4mo	$400,000	$260	65
1111 Wildwood Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	9mo	$395,000	$315	62
5510 Dartmouth St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,202 (-11%)	13mo	$395,000	$329	60
5543 Dartmouth St	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,528 (+14%)	7mo	$450,000	$295	59
5553 Harford St	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,397 (+4%)	10mo	$619,000	$443	58
5535 Gloucester St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$375,000	$326	54
5603 Essex St	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,538 (+14%)	8mo	$416,000	$270	54
5708 Bay View Pkwy	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-4%)	11mo	$434,000	$337	52
5560 Harford St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-12%)	8mo	$410,000	$347	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $138,499
• Equity at exit: $322,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $421,169
• Equity at exit: $616,501

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20733

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,661

Max offer price $388,794

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1239 Fairfax Ave Churchton, MD	4.0	3.0	1688	$3,200	$1.90	13d	1	0.14mi
1345 Ellicott Ave Churchton, MD	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,999	$2.20	43d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $460,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $460,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $460,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $460,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 343-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $460,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,236 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,025
• − Management: −$3,025
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$13,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Deale

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #7418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deale, MD
• City population: 5,332
• Population (ZIP): 2,780

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Current HPI: 517.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1572.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $460,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-02-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-30 Sold (MLS) $215,000 MRIS
• 2003-06-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-06-12 Listed $215,000 MRIS
• 1996-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $133,900 Public Records
• 1991-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $127,750 Public Records
• 1991-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,458 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.