405 Thistlewood Dr

Austin, TX 78745

$375,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$981
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-363/mo
• Annual: $-4,361/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $311k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,272/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 3006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?