405 Thistlewood Dr · Austin, TX 78745

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1970 7,261 sqft lot $184/sqft · 41% below area Est $636k · 41% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

Key facts

• 7,261 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1970

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $375,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$636,343) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,272/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 3006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,803 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $636,343
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -41.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 and 401 Ramble Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (-6%)	2mo	$350,000	$182	70
4621 Banister Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,999 (-2%)	2mo	$750,000	$375	64
4402 Garnett St #1	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,894 (-7%)	6mo	$729,000	$385	55
4605 Englewood Dr Unit A	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,296 (+13%)	10mo	$825,000	$359	50
5616 1st St #1	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,152 (+6%)	4mo	$539,500	$251	49
504 Chihuahua Trl	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-6%)	12mo	$595,000	$312	49
1206 Arden Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,752 (-14%)	0mo	$669,000	$382	46
301 W Stassney Ln #11	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,230 (+10%)	11mo	$600,000	$269	45
512 Bramble Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,806 (-11%)	4mo	$350,000	$194	41
613 Clifford Dr Unit A	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,244 (+10%)	5mo	$715,000	$319	40
4601 Hank Ave #3	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-15%)	1mo	$699,000	$403	36
4601 Hank Ave #2	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-15%)	3mo	$699,000	$403	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,231
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-146,951
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78745

• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$825 /mo · $9,903/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,732

Max offer price $310,803

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4904 Creekline Dr Austin, TX	3.0	1.5	1715	$2,975	$1.73	17d	1	0.13mi
5313 Harvest Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$3,650	$2.46	43d	1	0.39mi
4416 S 1st St #2 Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	3000	$6,750	$2.25	17d	1	0.42mi
411 W Saint Elmo Rd #34 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2053	$3,050	$1.49	4d	1	0.45mi
813 Cardiff Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,600	$2.18	23d	1	0.47mi
716 Ramble Ln Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	1.5	2024	$1,495	$0.74	43d	1	0.50mi
910 Nalide St Unit B Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2310	$5,000	$2.16	23d	1	0.53mi
4800 Vinson Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1564	$8,000	$5.12	4d	1	0.56mi
4800 Vinson Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1576	$3,499	$2.22	17d	1	0.56mi
5700 Glen Meadow Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,995	$1.30	3d	1	0.65mi
4905 Richmond Ave Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,595	$1.82	12d	1	0.71mi
5701 Cougar Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$2,000	$1.42	4d	1	0.76mi
809 Sussex Dr Austin, TX	3.0	1.0	1498	$2,300	$1.54	43d	1	0.79mi
501 E Stassney Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,082	$1.92	1d	41	0.81mi
802 Leisure Run Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$3,200	$2.28	4d	1	0.88mi
6001 S Congress Ave Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1146	$2,494	$2.18	2d	18	0.88mi
1303 Casey St Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,500	$1.75	4d	1	0.91mi
1303 Casey St Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.91mi
1308 Central Park Ct Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2012	$3,150	$1.57	12d	1	0.93mi
4412 Gillis St Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	1.0	2478	$2,200	$0.89	20d	1	0.96mi
3705 Wilson St Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$6,250	$2.83	2d	1	1.09mi
301 Craigmont Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	1.09mi
1702 Saint Albans Blvd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,700	$1.92	23d	1	1.15mi
5809 Swayden Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1873	$3,200	$1.71	17d	1	1.18mi
1410 Casa Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$3,495	$1.53	2d	1	1.19mi
1803 Fair Oaks Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$6,000	$3.16	16d	1	1.20mi
5915 Swayden Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1844	$3,200	$1.74	16d	1	1.22mi
3700 Garden Villa Ln #1 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$4,000	$2.38	43d	1	1.23mi
5504 Kings Hwy Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,850	$2.14	23d	1	1.24mi
3602 S 2nd St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1766	$4,600	$2.60	23d	1	1.24mi
1507 Homespun Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2035	$3,300	$1.62	4d	1	1.27mi
3505 Villa Ct #10 Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	1719	$4,250	$2.47	14d	1	1.31mi
6509 Skycrest Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2246	$2,700	$1.20	20d	1	1.32mi
208 Braeswood Rd Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$3,500	$2.02	14d	1	1.34mi
3411 Willow Springs Rd Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2773	$3,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.36mi
903 Cardinal Ln Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2036	$4,400	$2.16	23d	1	1.37mi
705 N Bluff Dr #6 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1677	$2,750	$1.64	4d	1	1.37mi
127 Frederick St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2259	$6,500	$2.88	23d	1	1.39mi
4022 Valley View Rd Unit 2C Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	1793	$4,900	$2.73	43d	1	1.39mi
323 W William Cannon Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	1.5	1905	$1,595	$0.84	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $375,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    price $375,000 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

15. 2026-01-15
    status Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

16. 2026-01-15
    price $399,000 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

17. 2026-01-09
    historical Active Under Contract 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

18. 2025-12-13
    listed $405,000 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Estate Sale | Investor Opportunity | Priced to Sell. Estate sale opportunity with strong upside for the right buyer. This 2,063 sq ft (per tax records) home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout and solid potential. Tenant occupied—showings are limited and subject to tenant cooperation. Property is being sold as-is. A foundation repair bid of approximately $9,000 is available for review. Home is priced intentionally below market to reflect condition, tenancy, and needed improvements. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity who understand how to look past current presentation. Not a turnkey home. Priced for a quick sale.

19. 1971-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,903 · $825/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,903 · $825/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$9,903
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,141
• − Management: −$3,141
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,219
• Household income: $86,109
• Rent vs Own: 53.7% rent · 46.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3006.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -596.81%
• Current HPI: 278.8433
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $399,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-09 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $405,000 Unlock MLS
• 1971-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,903 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.