835 Bowman Rd

Lakehurst, NJ 08527

$309,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$659
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $374/mo
• Annual: $4,490/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $310k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.