835 Bowman Rd · Lakehurst, NJ 08527

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1975 1.01 ac lot Est $601k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BED 1 1/2 BATH RANCH ON ONE ACRE WITH ONE CAR GARAGE BIG EIK, LIVING ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE, MASTER BED WITH 1/2 BATH, SEPTIC ONLY 5 YRS OLD CENTRAL AIR ALOT OF HOME FOR ALITTLE MONEY OWNER IS A LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $310k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $600,750
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Hidden Hollow Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-1%)	1mo	$595,000	$445	92
616 Ollie Burke Rd	0.56mi	3/3.0	1,274 (-6%)	14mo	$590,000	$463	49
675 Ollie Burke Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-8%)	14mo	$470,000	$377	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-36,112
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-38,310
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,358/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2023-10-19
   status Pending
2. 2023-10-08
   price $309,900
3. 2023-08-17
   status Active
4. 2023-07-19
   status Pending
5. 2023-06-18
   price $339,900
6. 2023-05-23
   status Active
7. 2023-05-04
   status Pending
8. 2023-05-03
   historical Active/Under Contract
9. 2023-04-11
   listed $349,900 Active
10. 2000-10-30
    soldstatus $150,000
11. 2000-10-20
    soldstatus $150,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    3 BED 1 1/2 BATH RANCH ON ONE ACRE WITH ONE CAR GARAGE BIG EIK, LIVING ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE, MASTER BED WITH 1/2 BATH, SEPTIC ONLY 5 YRS OLD CENTRAL AIR ALOT OF HOME FOR ALITTLE MONEY OWNER IS A LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT

12. 2000-10-04
    historical 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    3 BED 1 1/2 BATH RANCH ON ONE ACRE WITH ONE CAR GARAGE BIG EIK, LIVING ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE, MASTER BED WITH 1/2 BATH, SEPTIC ONLY 5 YRS OLD CENTRAL AIR ALOT OF HOME FOR ALITTLE MONEY OWNER IS A LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT

13. 2000-08-22
    listed $153,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    3 BED 1 1/2 BATH RANCH ON ONE ACRE WITH ONE CAR GARAGE BIG EIK, LIVING ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE, MASTER BED WITH 1/2 BATH, SEPTIC ONLY 5 YRS OLD CENTRAL AIR ALOT OF HOME FOR ALITTLE MONEY OWNER IS A LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT

14. 1995-04-28
    soldstatus $119,900
15. 1995-04-27
    soldstatus $119,900 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    BENNETTS MILL ROAD LEFT ON 528 TO BOWMAN ROAD. WELL KEPT, 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATHS. ON PARK LIKE PROPERTY. ENCLOSED PORCH , WOOD BURNING STOVE, REMODELED BATHROOM WITH JACUZZI. LARGE SHED & MORE. ERA BUYER'S PROTECTION PLAN. SAC 3%-$50.00.SHOW AND SELL. LOCKBOX ON BACK DOOR.

16. 1995-04-27
    soldstatus $119,900

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    BENNETTS MILL ROAD LEFT ON 528 TO BOWMAN ROAD. WELL KEPT, 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATHS. ON PARK LIKE PROPERTY. ENCLOSED PORCH , WOOD BURNING STOVE, REMODELED BATHROOM WITH JACUZZI. LARGE SHED & MORE. ERA BUYER'S PROTECTION PLAN. SAC 3%-$50.00.SHOW AND SELL. LOCKBOX ON BACK DOOR.

17. 1995-02-10
    historical 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    BENNETTS MILL ROAD LEFT ON 528 TO BOWMAN ROAD. WELL KEPT, 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATHS. ON PARK LIKE PROPERTY. ENCLOSED PORCH , WOOD BURNING STOVE, REMODELED BATHROOM WITH JACUZZI. LARGE SHED & MORE. ERA BUYER'S PROTECTION PLAN. SAC 3%-$50.00.SHOW AND SELL. LOCKBOX ON BACK DOOR.

18. 1994-08-22
    listed $119,900 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    BENNETTS MILL ROAD LEFT ON 528 TO BOWMAN ROAD. WELL KEPT, 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATHS. ON PARK LIKE PROPERTY. ENCLOSED PORCH , WOOD BURNING STOVE, REMODELED BATHROOM WITH JACUZZI. LARGE SHED & MORE. ERA BUYER'S PROTECTION PLAN. SAC 3%-$50.00.SHOW AND SELL. LOCKBOX ON BACK DOOR.

19. 1994-08-22
    listed $119,900

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    BENNETTS MILL ROAD LEFT ON 528 TO BOWMAN ROAD. WELL KEPT, 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATHS. ON PARK LIKE PROPERTY. ENCLOSED PORCH , WOOD BURNING STOVE, REMODELED BATHROOM WITH JACUZZI. LARGE SHED & MORE. ERA BUYER'S PROTECTION PLAN. SAC 3%-$50.00.SHOW AND SELL. LOCKBOX ON BACK DOOR.

20. 1993-03-08
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,358 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,037 · $586/mo
• Expected delta: +$679/yr (+$57/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$6,358
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,230
• − Management: −$3,230
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$87
• After-tax cash flow: $4,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+169.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2023-10-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-10-08 Price Changed $309,900 MOMLS
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-07-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-06-18 Price Changed $339,900 MOMLS
• 2023-05-23 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-05-04 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-05-03 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-04-11 Listed $349,900 MOMLS
• 2000-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-20 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MOMLS
• 2000-10-04 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2000-08-22 Listed $153,000 MOMLS
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 1995-04-27 Sold (MLS) $119,900 MOMLS
• 1995-04-27 Sold (MLS) $119,900 MOMLS
• 1995-02-10 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1994-08-22 Listed $119,900 MOMLS
• 1994-08-22 Listed $119,900 MOMLS
• 1993-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,358 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.