2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
643 sqft ·
Built 1956
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 131 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,765/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,884
Tax + insurance
−$740
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,001
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,684/yr
Cap rate
6.93%
Cash-on-cash
2.28%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$154,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $476k (13.4% below list).
It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $476k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $28k; list at $550k implies a 1830% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,765/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9Y3WFV1PJ67NKA
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29