126 Churchill Rd

Girard, OH 44420

$119,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $391/mo
• Annual: $4,695/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#605 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Girard City School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #458 of 656 in OH (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.0% in Girard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.