126 Churchill Rd · Girard, OH 44420

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 275 Days on market

Built 1913 5,998 sqft lot $62/sqft · 7% below area Est $129k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and take a look at this spacious home in Girard. The large kitchen is equipped with hardwood flooring, white cabinetry, and an extra dining area. The traditional dining room is large and also equipped with hardwood flooring. The main floor bathroom has hardwood floors, a white vanity, and a tile shower. The spacious living room has carpeted flooring, and there's tall ceilings throughout the entire main floor. The upstairs bathroom has tile floors and a white vanity. Carpeted flooring throughout the upstairs bedrooms. The 3rd floor has a finished bedroom and an extra finished room that could be used as a hangout area, or whatever your creative mind can think up! The large front porch is perfect for an outside hangout area or eating area for grilling. The sunroom on the second floor could be converted into a 4th bedroom, and there's plenty of storage area in the basement. Come and make this your home today!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large kitchen
• Extra dining area

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• EXTRA DINING AREA
• MAIN FLOOR BATHROOM
• TILE SHOWER
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.0% in Girard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#605 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Girard City School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #458 of 656 in OH (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,553
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -6.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Churchill Rd	0.13mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,900 (-2%)	6mo	$153,000	$81	79
121 Townsend Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,023 (+4%)	8mo	$189,900	$94	77
836 Lawrence Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,848 (-4%)	14mo	$176,000	$95	69
323 E Prospect St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (+6%)	1mo	$140,000	$68	67
453 E Broadway Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	2,048 (+6%)	5mo	$250,000	$122	56
200 E Main St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,030 (+5%)	6mo	$132,000	$65	56
527 N Saint Clair St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+8%)	15mo	$139,900	$67	55
1007 N Ward Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (-9%)	13mo	$226,000	$129	44
943 Dravis St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,724 (-11%)	5mo	$216,200	$125	42
205 E Main St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-13%)	15mo	$25,000	$15	40
100 Wilson Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,145 (+11%)	23mo	$205,000	$96	28
18 E 2nd St	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,648 (-15%)	11mo	$158,900	$96	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,482
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $36,833
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44420

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
833 Lawrence Ave Girard, OH	4.0	1.0	1312	$1,450	$1.11	13d	1	0.18mi
1079 North Ave Girard, OH	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	0.31mi
212 E Kline St Girard, OH	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,450	$0.91	43d	1	0.43mi
607 E Kline St Unit A Girard, OH	2.0	1.0	1432	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.77mi
296 E Howard St Girard, OH	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,800	$1.44	43d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,900 Active 274 DOM
3. 2025-09-26
   price $119,900 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   Come and take a look at this spacious home in Girard. The large kitchen is equipped with hardwood flooring, white cabinetry, and an extra dining area. The traditional dining room is large and also equipped with hardwood flooring. The main floor bathroom has hardwood floors, a white vanity, and a tile shower. The spacious living room has carpeted flooring, and there's tall ceilings throughout the entire main floor. The upstairs bathroom has tile floors and a white vanity. Carpeted flooring throughout the upstairs bedrooms. The 3rd floor has a finished bedroom and an extra finished room that could be used as a hangout area, or whatever your creative mind can think up! The large front porch is perfect for an outside hangout area or eating area for grilling. The sunroom on the second floor could be converted into a 4th bedroom, and there's plenty of storage area in the basement. Come and make this your home today!

4. 2025-08-29
   listed $139,900 Active 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   Come and take a look at this spacious home in Girard. The large kitchen is equipped with hardwood flooring, white cabinetry, and an extra dining area. The traditional dining room is large and also equipped with hardwood flooring. The main floor bathroom has hardwood floors, a white vanity, and a tile shower. The spacious living room has carpeted flooring, and there's tall ceilings throughout the entire main floor. The upstairs bathroom has tile floors and a white vanity. Carpeted flooring throughout the upstairs bedrooms. The 3rd floor has a finished bedroom and an extra finished room that could be used as a hangout area, or whatever your creative mind can think up! The large front porch is perfect for an outside hangout area or eating area for grilling. The sunroom on the second floor could be converted into a 4th bedroom, and there's plenty of storage area in the basement. Come and make this your home today!

5. 2023-11-01
   historical
6. 2023-08-26
   price $49,700
7. 2023-07-24
   price $109,900
8. 2023-05-01
   listed $119,900 Active
9. 2022-08-01
   historical
10. 2022-05-21
    price $139,900
11. 2022-03-17
    listed $145,000 Active
12. 2022-03-06
    historical
13. 2021-12-06
    listed $155,000 Active
14. 2020-11-04
    price $49,700
15. 2020-11-04
    price $49,700
16. 2020-08-25
    price $49,700
17. 2019-07-04
    historical
18. 2019-06-05
    price $26,900
19. 2019-05-13
    price $27,900
20. 2019-02-22
    price $29,900
21. 2019-01-31
    price $30,900
22. 2019-01-14
    listed $31,000 Active
23. 2018-10-19
    historical
24. 2018-09-08
    price $33,900
25. 2018-08-03
    status Active
26. 2018-07-28
    status Pending
27. 2018-07-11
    price $34,900
28. 2018-06-15
    price $35,900
29. 2018-05-24
    price $36,900
30. 2018-04-05
    price $38,900
31. 2018-01-17
    listed $39,900 Active
32. 2015-01-21
    soldstatus $40,000
33. 2014-04-29
    soldstatus $49,500
34. 2014-02-12
    price $49,700
35. 2014-02-12
    price $49,700
36. 2013-09-04
    soldstatus $49,000
37. 2013-09-02
    historical
38. 2013-05-02
    listed $33,500
39. 2009-03-14
    historical
40. 2008-03-14
    listed $69,900
41. 2007-07-03
    soldstatus $17,000
42. 2007-06-30
    historical
43. 2007-01-08
    listed $21,500
44. 2006-12-31
    historical
45. 2005-12-06
    listed $34,500
46. 2005-10-22
    historical
47. 2005-05-31
    historical
48. 2005-04-11
    listed $59,900
49. 2005-01-07
    listed $79,900
50. 2001-10-17
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,554 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$702
• After-tax cash flow: $3,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Girard City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904406
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $40,293
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3496
• State rank: #458 of 656 in OH

Livability — Girard

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #10378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Girard, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 15,293
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,293
• Household income: $61,707
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 351.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.72%
• Current HPI: 221.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+389.4% since first listed

56 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $119,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-08-29 Listed $139,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-11-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2023-08-26 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $109,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-05-01 Listed $119,900 MLSNOW
• 2022-08-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2022-05-21 Price Changed $139,900 MLSNOW
• 2022-03-17 Listed $145,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-03-06 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2021-12-06 Listed $155,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-11-04 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2020-11-04 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2020-08-25 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2019-07-04 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2019-06-05 Price Changed $26,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-05-13 Price Changed $27,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-02-22 Price Changed $29,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-01-31 Price Changed $30,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-01-14 Listed $31,000 MLSNOW
• 2018-10-19 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2018-09-08 Price Changed $33,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-08-03 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2018-07-28 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2018-07-11 Price Changed $34,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-06-15 Price Changed $35,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-05-24 Price Changed $36,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-04-05 Price Changed $38,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-01-17 Listed $39,900 MLSNOW
• 2015-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2014-02-12 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2014-02-12 Price Changed $49,700 MLSNOW
• 2013-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2013-05-02 Listed $33,500 MLSNOW
• 2009-03-14 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2008-03-14 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 2007-07-03 Sold (MLS) $17,000 MLSNOW
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2007-01-08 Listed $21,500 MLSNOW
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-12-06 Listed $34,500 MLSNOW
• 2005-10-22 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-05-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-04-11 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 2005-01-07 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2001-10-17 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2001-04-12 Listed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1999-01-13 Price Changed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-01-13 Price Changed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-01-13 Price Changed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-01-13 Price Changed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-01-13 Price Changed $111,900 MLSNOW
• 1989-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,238 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.