704 Short Beach Rd

Nissequogue, NY 11780

$1,699,543B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,043 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $55,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,913
• Tax + insurance: −$2,810
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$11,658
• Net cashflow: $32,132/mo
• Annual: $385,589/yr
• Cap rate: 28.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.03%
• DSCR: 4.61
• 1% rule: 3.27%
• Cash to close: $475,872

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($386k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($56k rent vs $1.70M).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,056 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saint James Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 474 students, 15% FRL); Nesaquake Middle School (math 44% / reading 67%, grade B-, #211 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 473 students, 10% FRL); Smithtown High School East (math 96% / reading 82%, grade A+, #288 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,475 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.38M; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.