704 Short Beach Rd · Nissequogue, NY 11780

$1,699,543

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1978 2.36 ac lot $559/sqft · 76% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a world of elegance and tranquility at this stunning Colonial home, nestled in the picturesque Village of Nissequogue. Offering a perfect blend of classic charm and modern convenience, this property is a sanctuary where memories are made and cherished. The main house boasts three generously-sized bedrooms, providing ample space for relaxation and personal retreat. Two full bathrooms ensure that morning routines are a breeze, making this home a perfect fit for families or guests. The large kitchen is a chef’s dream, equipped with modern appliances and abundant counter space. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or enjoying a quiet breakfast, this kitchen serves as the heart of the home, seamlessly connecting with the formal dining room that invites laughter and shared meals. The formal living room is an inviting space that sets the stage for cozy evenings by the fireplace, while the den, complete with a wet bar, offers a perfect retreat for entertaining friends or enjoying a nightcap after a long day. Sprawling across 2.36 acres, this property is a true outdoor paradise. Dive into luxury with your own inground pool, where summer days can be spent basking in the sun or hosting unforgettable poolside gatherings. The allure doesn’t stop there; the charming pool house enhances outdoor living with its own living room, kitchenette, and full bath. Perfect for guests or entertaining, the 13' x 21' loft area above provides a unique space for hobbies, a home office, or additional guest accommodation. This home is more than just a place to live; it’s a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Don’t miss your chance to own this captivating Colonial retreat in Nissequogue—where every corner of the property invites relaxation, celebration, and cherished moments. Schedule your private tour today, and step into your dream home!

Key facts

• 2.36 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($386k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($56k rent vs $1.70M).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,056 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.38M; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,495,597 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.03%
• DSCR: 4.61
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $965,000
• List price: $1,699,543
• Delta: 76.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Cypress Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,900 (-5%)	2mo	$880,000	$303	58
659 Horse Race Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,800 (-8%)	8mo	$1,350,000	$482	55
9 Holly Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,857 (-6%)	7mo	$1,450,000	$508	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $1,771,957
• Equity at exit: $253,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.79×
• Total profit: $4,181,571
• Equity at exit: $146,945

Cash invested: $475,872 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11780

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $55,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,913
• Tax from tax record: −$2,102 /mo · $25,218/yr
• Insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$11,658
• Net cashflow: $32,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,838

Max offer price $1,699,543

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33,095	-5% $32,613	+0% $32,132	+5% $31,651	+10% $31,170
Rent	-10% $27,747	-5% $29,940	+0% $32,132	+5% $34,325	+10% $36,518
Rate	-1.0pp $32,988	-0.5pp $32,565	base $32,132	+0.5pp $31,692	+1.0pp $31,244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $424,886
• Closing costs: $50,986
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Pheasant Run Saint James, NY	5.0	5.5	3058	$60,000	$19.62	26d	1	0.09mi
451 River Rd Saint James, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$5,800	$1.93	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,699,543 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,699,543 Active 235 DOM
16. 2025-10-09
    listed $1,699,543 Active 1876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1876 chars)

    Step into a world of elegance and tranquility at this stunning Colonial home, nestled in the picturesque Village of Nissequogue. Offering a perfect blend of classic charm and modern convenience, this property is a sanctuary where memories are made and cherished. The main house boasts three generously-sized bedrooms, providing ample space for relaxation and personal retreat. Two full bathrooms ensure that morning routines are a breeze, making this home a perfect fit for families or guests. The large kitchen is a chef’s dream, equipped with modern appliances and abundant counter space. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or enjoying a quiet breakfast, this kitchen serves as the heart of the home, seamlessly connecting with the formal dining room that invites laughter and shared meals. The formal living room is an inviting space that sets the stage for cozy evenings by the fireplace, while the den, complete with a wet bar, offers a perfect retreat for entertaining friends or enjoying a nightcap after a long day. Sprawling across 2.36 acres, this property is a true outdoor paradise. Dive into luxury with your own inground pool, where summer days can be spent basking in the sun or hosting unforgettable poolside gatherings. The allure doesn’t stop there; the charming pool house enhances outdoor living with its own living room, kitchenette, and full bath. Perfect for guests or entertaining, the 13' x 21' loft area above provides a unique space for hobbies, a home office, or additional guest accommodation. This home is more than just a place to live; it’s a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Don’t miss your chance to own this captivating Colonial retreat in Nissequogue—where every corner of the property invites relaxation, celebration, and cherished moments. Schedule your private tour today, and step into your dream home!

17. 2025-10-01
    historical $1,699,543 1876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1876 chars)

    Step into a world of elegance and tranquility at this stunning Colonial home, nestled in the picturesque Village of Nissequogue. Offering a perfect blend of classic charm and modern convenience, this property is a sanctuary where memories are made and cherished. The main house boasts three generously-sized bedrooms, providing ample space for relaxation and personal retreat. Two full bathrooms ensure that morning routines are a breeze, making this home a perfect fit for families or guests. The large kitchen is a chef’s dream, equipped with modern appliances and abundant counter space. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or enjoying a quiet breakfast, this kitchen serves as the heart of the home, seamlessly connecting with the formal dining room that invites laughter and shared meals. The formal living room is an inviting space that sets the stage for cozy evenings by the fireplace, while the den, complete with a wet bar, offers a perfect retreat for entertaining friends or enjoying a nightcap after a long day. Sprawling across 2.36 acres, this property is a true outdoor paradise. Dive into luxury with your own inground pool, where summer days can be spent basking in the sun or hosting unforgettable poolside gatherings. The allure doesn’t stop there; the charming pool house enhances outdoor living with its own living room, kitchenette, and full bath. Perfect for guests or entertaining, the 13' x 21' loft area above provides a unique space for hobbies, a home office, or additional guest accommodation. This home is more than just a place to live; it’s a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Don’t miss your chance to own this captivating Colonial retreat in Nissequogue—where every corner of the property invites relaxation, celebration, and cherished moments. Schedule your private tour today, and step into your dream home!

18. 2025-01-10
    soldstatus $1,380,000
19. 2000-10-23
    soldstatus $560,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $25,218 · $2,102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,970 · $2,248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,752/yr (+$146/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $666,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$95,201
• − Property taxes: −$25,218
• − Insurance: −$8,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$53,292
• − Management: −$53,292
• − Depreciation: −$49,441
• Taxable income: $381,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91,489
• After-tax cash flow: $294,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithtown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627060
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,009
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #473
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Nissequogue

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #21116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nissequogue, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,586

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -610.91%
• Current HPI: 290.2363
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+203.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Listed $1,699,543 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Coming Soon $1,699,543 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,380,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $25,218 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.