450 Dorsey Ln

Utica, NY 13502

$299,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,523/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $98/mo
• Annual: $1,181/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.6% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: General Herkimer Elementary School (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,566 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 597 students, 76% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #534 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Thomas R Proctor High School (math 86% / reading 62%, grade B+, #659 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,675 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools at 76% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At $2,523/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.