450 Dorsey Ln · Utica, NY 13502

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1958 9,381 sqft lot Est $301k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This amazing 3-bedroom, 2-full bath ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and space. Featuring an updated kitchen, a stunning family room with a cozy fireplace, and a spacious dining room perfect for entertaining, this home is designed for everyday living and special gatherings alike. The private primary suite offers a spa-like bath creating the perfect retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to enjoy the large private yard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. A truly move-in ready home with so much to offer!

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Large private yard
• Spacious dining room

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• LARGE PRIVATE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Public water source
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Open porch; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s)/outdoor storage; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 69 x 135

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate formal living room; Separate formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Storage; Main-level primary bedroom; Partial basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: General Herkimer Elementary School (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,566 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 597 students, 76% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #534 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Thomas R Proctor High School (math 86% / reading 62%, grade B+, #659 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,675 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools at 76% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,523/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $252,283 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Richmond Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-5%)	3mo	$67,000	$41	70
703 Burth Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	7mo	$295,000	$174	64
407 Deland Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+5%)	12mo	$250,000	$137	63
824 Herkimer Rd	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,768 (+2%)	7mo	$260,000	$147	61
455 Elmhurst Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,706 (-1%)	14mo	$220,000	$129	60
703 Crabapple Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,634 (-5%)	15mo	$225,000	$138	56
429 Linda View Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	12mo	$318,000	$187	56
454 Elmdale Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-8%)	5mo	$296,400	$186	56
10830 Cosby Manor Rd	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,728 (0%)	5mo	$225,000	$130	54
422 Sunlit Ter	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-1%)	11mo	$400,000	$234	51
5425 Summerset	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+2%)	10mo	$370,000	$209	49
461 Elmdale Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-9%)	12mo	$345,000	$218	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-42,250
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-28,994
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,425/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $183	+0% $98	+5% $14	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-1	+0% $98	+5% $198	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $174	base $98	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Deerfield Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,600	$1.80	45d	1	1.13mi
1 Patriot Cir Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1451	$3,115	$2.15	45d	6	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,739 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,314/yr (+$110/mo · 54.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,425
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$945
• After-tax cash flow: $2,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $299,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,425 · -14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.