555 Western Ave

Green Isle, MN 55338

$309,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-935/mo
• Annual: $-11,217/yr
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.93%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-935 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (53.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (51.4% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (53.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#578 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sibley East School District (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #218 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sibley East-Gaylord Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 469 students, 51% FRL); Sibley East Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #182 of 258 statewide, top 71%, 253 students, 50% FRL); Sibley East-Arlington Senior High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #282 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 356 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Sibley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sibley County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.