555 Western Ave · Green Isle, MN 55338

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2020 0.29 ac lot $214/sqft · 19% below area Est $382k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with storage and garage door opener; Concrete driveway; Electric in garage; Three-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Main level entry; One level; No stairs external
• Construction: Concrete construction; Asphalt, pitched roof (age 8 years or less); Slab foundation; Built on a 1,451 foundation area
• Exterior features: Stone exterior accents; Storage shed; Tree coverage (medium); No pool; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and window; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level (sizes: 10x10, 10x10, 16x17)
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main level; One 3/4 primary bath (private, on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Air-to-air exchanger; Water softener (owned); No stairs internal; All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Walk-in closet; Kitchen/dining room layout
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-935 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (53.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (51.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (53.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#578 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sibley East School District (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #218 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sibley East-Gaylord Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 469 students, 51% FRL); Sibley East Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #182 of 258 statewide, top 71%, 253 students, 50% FRL); Sibley East-Arlington Senior High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #282 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 356 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Sibley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sibley County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $144,777 (53.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.93%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,845
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -14.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $109,259
• Equity at exit: $279,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $368,590
• Equity at exit: $602,068

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55338

• Home prices YoY: 20.3%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,442/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $144,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-759	-5% $-847	+0% $-935	+5% $-1,022	+10% $-1,110
Rent	-10% $-1,054	-5% $-994	+0% $-935	+5% $-875	+10% $-816
Rate	-1.0pp $-779	-0.5pp $-856	base $-935	+0.5pp $-1,015	+1.0pp $-1,097

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $309,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $309,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $318,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $318,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $318,900 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $325,000 497-char remark
20. 2026-04-27
    price $329,900 497-char remark
21. 2026-04-10
    listed $334,900 Active 497-char remark
22. 2026-04-08
    historical $334,900 497-char remark
23. 2021-02-26
    soldstatus $231,300 Sold 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

24. 2021-01-31
    status Pending 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

25. 2021-01-27
    status Pending 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

26. 2021-01-26
    status Pending 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

27. 2020-10-04
    status Pending 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

28. 2020-08-26
    listed $227,900 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    **UNDER CONSTRUCTION SPEC**Affordable one level living! This slab on grade home features attached 3 car garage, open floor plan for living room, dining and kitchen. Finishes include granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash in kitchen, private master suite with walk in shower, laundry/mud room off of garage entrance plus much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,442 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,442 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,442
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$17,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sibley East School District
• NCES district ID: 2700102
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,647
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5100
• State rank: #218 of 301 in MN

Livability — Green Isle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #578
• US rank: #13902

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Isle, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,002

Population outlook (Sibley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,246 people
• By 2030: 13,850 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 12,941 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 11,946 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 10,410 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 9,444 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 2% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sibley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.6% · R 70.7% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.8 2016: R+41.9 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.38%
• Current HPI: 233.2023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+36.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listed $318,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $329,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $334,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-26 Sold (MLS) $231,300 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-31 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-26 Listed $227,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,442 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.