57 Serenity Ln

Aquia Harbour, VA 22554

$112,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,047/mo
• Annual: $12,566/yr
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.07%
• DSCR: 2.78
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.