57 Serenity Ln · Aquia Harbour, VA 22554

$112,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition $107/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home conveniently located in Stafford, VA! This well-maintained home is ready for its next owner and offers a cozy feel the moment you walk in. Inside you’ll find updated touches, spacious living areas, and a layout that feels both comfortable and functional. Enjoy being just minutes from I-95, Route 1, Garrisonville Rd, and Quantico, making commuting a breeze. Conveniently located near Stafford Marketplace, Embrey Mill Town Center, Target, Walmart, Publix, and plenty of restaurants, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Nearby schools, parks, and commuter options make this location even more desirable. Monthly ground lease is

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1983
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership interest: Ground Rent
• Financial info: Ground rent: $950 monthly; Annual ground rent listed as an income/expense item

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 2 driveway spaces; 2 total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric utilities for heating, cooling, and hot water; Public sewer; Private/community water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other above-grade structures noted; Make: Richwood (mobile/manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Private/community water; Public sewer; Ground rent applies (monthly payment)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement; Accessible features present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.07%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,388
• List price: $112,000
• Delta: -73.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Little Branch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,121 (+7%)	10mo	$95,000	$85	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $44,502
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $108,626
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22554

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,086	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,008	+10% $970
Rent	-10% $865	-5% $956	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,229
Rate	-1.0pp $1,104	-0.5pp $1,076	base $1,047	+0.5pp $1,018	+1.0pp $989

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3354 Richmond Hwy Stafford, VA	3.0	1.0	872	$2,400	$2.75	44d	1	0.16mi
106 Wind Ridge Dr Stafford, VA	2.0	1.5	902	$1,700	$1.88	21d	1	0.31mi
703 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	44d	1	0.55mi
2030 Dewey Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,750	$2.12	45d	1	0.91mi
100 Grosvenor Ln #3 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,900	$2.27	5d	1	1.39mi
102 Picadilly Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,749	$2.09	25d	1	1.41mi
102 Piccadilly Ln Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,695	$2.03	44d	1	1.41mi
200 Dover Pl #202 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	25d	1	1.41mi
37 Bristol Ct Stafford, VA	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	5d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $112,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $112,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $117,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $117,000 Active 1042-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    historical $117,000 1042-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable income: $11,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,752
• After-tax cash flow: $9,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with updated interiors and a good location. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading appliances in kitchen — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances in kitchen — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Aquia Harbour

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #8617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 65,494
• Household income: $151,480
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 781.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.68%
• Current HPI: 280.621
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $112,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $117,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $117,000 BRIGHT MLS