4141 Kestrel Ct

Gainesville, GA 30506

$329,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,877 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$135
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-475/mo
• Annual: $-5,705/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $92,397

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Hall County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #81 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sardis Elementary School (math 34% / reading 35%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 591 students, 51% FRL); Chestatee Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 895 students, 60% FRL); Chestatee High School (math 7% / reading 32%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 1,244 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 984 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?