4141 Kestrel Ct · Gainesville, GA 30506

$329,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,877 sqft · Townhouse · 264 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,397 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $339k · at est. $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4141 Kestrel Court in Gainesville, GA's Falcon Landing community nestled around the shores of Lake Lanier and just a short drive to the charming downtown. This END UNIT Sudbury two-story townhome plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms along with a 2-car garage in 1,877 sq. ft. Enjoy lakeside living with Bolding Mill Park right next door and an easy walk to enjoy the day at the beach, fishing, boating, jet skiing, or camping. As you step off the front porch, a long foyer leads into the open-concept living area. A large family room is the perfect place for family and friends to gather or for a quiet night with a book or movie. It flows seamlessly into the kitchen with a center island, quartz countertops, white subway tile backsplash, beautiful burlap color shaker-style cabinetry, and stainless-steel appliances. There is also a space for a dining table in this large space. A half bathroom is tucked away on the first floor. Up the stairs you'll turn from the landing into the primary suite, with a large room and ensuite bathroom featuring a separate tub and shower, dual vanity, water closet, linen closet, and a roomy walk-in closet. Across the landing you'll be led to 3 secondary bedrooms, the laundry closet, and an additional bathroom, also with dual vanity, to round out the upper floor. Schedule an appointment to tour this move-in ready home at 4141 Kestrel Court in the Falcon Landing lake community in Gainesville, GA to make this dream home yours.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Center island
• $135 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Hall County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #81 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sardis Elementary School (math 34% / reading 35%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 591 students, 51% FRL); Chestatee Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 895 students, 60% FRL); Chestatee High School (math 7% / reading 32%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 1,244 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 984 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $245,579 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,725
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -2.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4153 Kestrel Ct	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	3mo	$314,886	$168	92
4157 Kestrel Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	3mo	$316,886	$169	92
4140 Kestrel Ct	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,877 (0%)	9mo	$344,597	$184	91
4185 Kestrel Ct	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,877 (0%)	8mo	$342,897	$183	90
4140 Kestrel Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,877 (0%)	9mo	$344,597	$184	90
4156 Kestrel Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	11mo	$337,946	$180	84
4169 Kestrel Ct	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	12mo	$348,990	$186	83
4173 Kestrel Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-1%)	12mo	$342,886	$185	82
4177 Kestrel Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	12mo	$352,990	$188	82
4176 Kestrel Ct	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (0%)	11mo	$368,990	$197	77
4172 Kestrel Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-1%)	12mo	$356,990	$192	74
4181 Kestrel Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-1%)	12mo	$340,000	$183	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-81,539
• Equity at exit: $49,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-100,768
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $361,490 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30506

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 984
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,058

Max offer price $261,197

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-361	+0% $-475	+5% $-589	+10% $-703
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-572	+0% $-475	+5% $-378	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-309	-0.5pp $-391	base $-475	+0.5pp $-561	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,498
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4144 Kestrel CT Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,300	$1.20	69d	1	0.04mi
4219 Merlin Pass Gainesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,300	$1.24	98d	1	0.12mi
4219 Merlin Pass Gainesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,200	$1.18	76d	1	0.12mi
6710 Sawnee Ter Gainesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,150	$1.53	96d	1	1.50mi
6710 Sawnee Ter Gainesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,050	$1.46	88d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail $135/mo · $1,620/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $329,990 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $329,990 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $329,990 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $329,990 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $329,990 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $329,990 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $329,990 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $329,990 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $329,990 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 244 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 241 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $329,990 Active 239 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $329,990 Active 238 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $344,886 Active 237 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $344,886 Active 236 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $344,886 Active 235 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $344,886 Active 234 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $344,886 Active 233 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $344,886 Active 232 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $344,886 Active 231 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $344,886 Active 230 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $344,886 Active 229 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $344,886 Active 228 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $344,886 Active 227 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $344,886 Active 226 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $344,886 Active 225 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $344,886 Active 224 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $344,886 Active 223 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $344,886 Active 222 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $344,886 Active 221 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $344,886 Active 220 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $344,886 Active 219 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $344,886 Active 218 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $344,886 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $344,886 Active 215 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $344,886 Active 214 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $344,886 Active 213 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $344,886 Active 210 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $344,886 Active 209 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $344,886 Active 208 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $344,886 Active 207 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $344,886 Active 205 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $344,886 Active 203 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $344,886 Active 202 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$11,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,772
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome in Gainesville, GA, features a modern kitchen, good condition throughout, and a good location near Lake Lanier.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sardis Elementary School F GA #531/1,228 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Chestatee Middle School F GA #243/470 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Chestatee High School F GA #243/424 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hall County
• NCES district ID: 1302610
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,708
• Composite: 27.15/100
• National rank: #7029
• State rank: #81 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #11362

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hall County · 225,275 people
• City population: 140,301
• Metro: Gainesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 45,612
• Household income: $97,413
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Hall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,275 people
• By 2030: 240,204 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 268,440 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 293,596 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 350,293 · +55.5%
• By 2100: 389,329 · +72.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.8% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+56.4 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.87%
• Current HPI: 259.9978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Metro: Gainesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $339,886 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $339,886 GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $339,886 FMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $347,990 GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $347,990 FMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $345,990 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $345,990 FMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $349,990 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $349,990 FMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Listed $374,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-30 Listed $374,990 FMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $374,990 GAMLS